>> thank you all for the discussion today and for all of your contributions to the program this year. i really appreciate. before we go, i wanted to point out that if you missed the interview with the president, there are several opportunities to watch a rebroadcast on msnbc later today at 2:00 p.m., 4:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. eastern. and, again, tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. and for highlights from the interview, make sure to follow me on twitter @david greg ri. that's all for today. we'll be back next week. until then, have a happy new year. robert

. >> auld lang spyne. what's in store for a second term? and what will the president be able to accomplish before leaving the white house? recent history shows some highs and lows for a second term president. what can president obama learn from mistakes and big breaks that shape the country for the last 30 years? and a who's who to keep your eyes on for the coming year and years. it's the leading voices of their parties, while old, familiar ones still drive the early jockeying for the next presidential fight. happy holidays and new year. and hello, from washington. this is a special year-end e digsz of "the daily rundown" but

also a preview. i'm chuck todd and a look at the lessons we got from 2012, what they'll mean from 2013, how power can shift in 2014. but let's get right to my first read. how did president obama weighed down by a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking election since f.d.r. even have his party pick-up senate seats to get to 55. as a republican party picks up, here are four lessons th2016 hopefuls might want to keep in mind. if you don't define yourself, your opponent will do it for you. go largely unanswered.

romney's campaign argued after a long, expensive primary, they had to choose how to spend, at the time, what was what was limited fund. >> on the economic values question, which was this, which candidate was more in touch with people like you. 53% said romney's policies would favor the rich. romney, the first republican nominee in the history of our nbc wall street journal poll to go into his convention with his personal rating under water and into his campaign with a painful number. >> their bought ads early and were very careful about where to buy the ads. in the last week of the election, the obama campaign paid $550 for a single ad in

raleigh, north carolina. >> romney bought it the week of. lesson two, the republican brand needs a hard look. if you take that out, it's been nearly five years. just 36% said they had a positive view of the republican party. >> todd aiken richard murdauch over the summer and the fall. now, as the parting debates whether to modernize, it has to repair its image. and that leads us to lesson three. demographics are destiny.

romney won a higher percentage of the white vote than any candidate since rond reagan in 1984. >> lost the election by a wider margin. why? because the composition of the electorate changed. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped from 74 pnt in 2008 to 72% in 2012. the president carried nearly eight in ten including an astounding 71% of latinos, 73% of asian voters and a whopping 93% of black voters. it remains a real question of wi whether the democratic nominee will be able to hold the coalition together. but the republican party is right to be re-examining its

relationship with minorities. finally, lesson four. don't ignore the data. the polls matter and more of them are right than wrong. a little public polling in the swing states. romney's electorate would be a little wide herb and older than it turned out to be. the enthusiasm numbers did favor them, but they didn't have enough voters. >> 2016, on the obama campaign's technological juggernaut. the republican bubble is don't ignore the data that is available to anyone with a computer.

>> it's known as the second-term curse. american presidents successfully win reelection only to have a rough ride in years five through eight. sometimes its sowering relations with congress and unforseen external events and, of course, scandal. there's always an issue for second-term president. and the first post-election news conference, the president himself acknowledged second-term strugs. >> i don't presume that because i won an election that everyone suddenly agrees with me on everything. i'm more than familiar with all of the literature about presidential overreach. >> here's president clinton after his reelection in 1996. >> in modern times, second term for presidents have been disappointing or disastrous. i wonder if you've done any lessons on why that's so?

>> the things that derail us in second term are basically three. one is some external event intervenes and the president can't fulfill his dreams or hopes or agenda. sometimes the president thinks he has more of a mandate than he does in the absence of co- cooperation. and the third is sometimes a president just runs out of steam. >> in november, 1972, after two weeks of reflection in camp david, president nixon told reporters my study of elections are almost that second terms are inevitably downhill. yes, richard nixon said that in '72. after a string of legislative successes in his first term, president bush claimed a mandate. >> there is a feeling that people have spoken and see your point of view. i have earned political capital

and now i intend to spend it. >> spend it he did. just 16 months later, bush made this stark admission to the press corps. >> just after the 2004 e lexz, you seemed to claim an enviable balance. >> i say i'm spending that capital on the war. >> not only did plum etting support with the second term agenda, but he also overreached with the social security privatization and then collapsed under the wait of the under issues. the administration bungled the response for hurricane katrina to the point that when bush nominated har yet myers, republicans didn't fall in line. many privately and publicly called and forced to withdraw her nomination. bush's approval rating had dropped to a miserable 47%.

it's a real question whether president obama will be able to forge a closer-working relationship with congress this time around. and then, of course, there's the second term scandal. clinton's second term dominated, basically ended after a year because the le wrkwinsky scanda began which completely derailed any agenda he hoped to push in that second four years. >> i have to go back to work on my state of the union speech. and i worked on it until pretty late last night. but but i want to say one thing. i did not have sexual relations with that woman, ms. lewinsky. >> ronald reagan pushed through a tax overhaul, he also became embroiled in the iran contra affair. >> a few months ago, i told the american people i did not trade arms for hostages.

my heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true. but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not. >> there is a bright side. if lincoln hadn't had a second term, he wouldn't have won the war. still, second terms, they don't last four years, they're shorter than that. how long will obama have? is he aware that a second term, do mesically, only lasts about a year to 18 months. finally, plolitical junk kis knw we don't have to wait until 2016 for our next fix. in virginia, it's the clintons versus the tea party. as former democratic national committee chairman takes on virginia's republican attorney

gener general, he put himself front and center and is, of course, a tea party favorite and a favorite of social conservativ s conservatives. but money, in the backing of the clintons didn't do the trick the last time around. he raised over $8 million and lost badly. key question, which flawed candidate wins this race? he's hoping to break this virginia curse. ready for this? since 1976, the party that wins the presidency loses the state's gubernatori nernatorial electio year. mark warner defeated a republican. mark earley, 52% of the vote. jim cain won by 6 points. four years ago, bob mcdonald won by 17 points. in an off-year election, the electorate likely to be a little

older and conservative than it was in november. but will it be conservative enough? we'll see. moving on, we'll see. if you're thinking about working on hillary's presidential campaign, aparentally, you're supposed to send your resume. and i'm not fully joking about that. in new jersey, where the governor's race is all about one man, chris christie. christie hopes to scare off any competition while building a platform. both christie's run and how he manages the hurricane effort. christie who famously declared now is not my time makes moves in 2013 toward a presidential bid. watch for clues. people close to chri srksz tie believe the biggest mistake romney made was not trying to seek a second term in massachusetts.

they believe their best shot becoming a nominee in 2016 is a second term. we have a gaggle joining us this hour. stephanie cutter, kevin madden from the campaign trail. and perry bacon. they'll all be here next. we've made a list and we're chexing it twice. we're going to have the daily rundowns. politicians to watch in the new year. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪ [ male announcer ] every time you say no to a cigarette, you celebrate a little win. nicoderm cq, the patch with time release smart control technology that acts fast and helps control cravings all day long. ♪ quit one day at a time with nicoderm cq.

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call it "the dally rundown" dirty dozen.

here's if list i threw out there on the democratic side. vice president biden, hillary clinton, michael bennett jerry brown senator elect warren and governor nikki haley, former florida governor jeb bush and soon-to-be florida senator. our gaggle from msnbc, chris salizza and political editor, perry bacon. and kevin madden, was a senior advisor for governor romney's campaign. we asked all of you, first of all, hello. happy new year. we asked all of you to pick. i throw my dozen and all of you, i asked you to pick two that you're going to keep. we're not going to do the 2016 confers now, but we'll do it in a few minutes.

>> so i'm a littler in day and focused on the downed ballot. so i did pick michael bennett, the colorado senator. he's tasked with, trying to, again, keep a democratic senate majority difficulty of 20 democratic seats. and they asked him two years ago, he said no. >> why pence up there? >> i think he's a guy who spernt time in congress and is now the governor of indiana. he's a guy we under rate. we've seen how particularly republican governors can have a fiscal conservativism. pence is going to force a political agenda.

>> jerry brown, really important. california is a super majority so jerry brown and the democrats do whatever they want. and i'm curious, what does that mean? how does he use it? the liberal panacea that you see out there for the first time. >> and then you went with a potential rising star? >> nikk irksz hale yrksz is struggling. at the same time, she's this big, national figure. the republicans are looking for diverse voices and she's one of the most leading ones. i'm curious to see what she does going forward. >> all right, your picks were? >> one was predictable and one was a little unprediktble. >> i picked elizabeth warren, who, of course, has senator kennedy's seat. i think she's probably the most high-profile, freshman senator

without a doubt. >> probably since hillary clinton, right? >> i think you're right. i think she's coming in the same way. looking for people to work with, reach across the aisle, moderating some of the things. >> is this a steppingstone for her? >> i don't know. i don't want to guess. but i do want to know that there are some great things that she can accomplish there. but potentially u it's rumored there that she'll be on the consumer watchdog. so this will be interesting to watch. >> and then your other pick? >> paul ryan. you know, obviously, as a democrat, it's somebody that i've been watching for a long time. i think he came out of this race with a good reputation. and i think that, you know, he has a lot of opportunity this year. he's known as a reformer of the party. the republican party is doing a lot of introspection of what they need to do to address the changing demographics. and he has an opportunity to really step up.

>> he's a leader in the house. abds he's known as being ied logical. this is an opportunity to open up a little bit. >> all right, you picked. you've got the big two. >> i think marko rubio, people are looking for new, diverse voices inside the republican party. marko is going to become a national figure in that regard. he's going to be emblem attic to reach out to the future of the party. >> his first test is going to be getting immigration. >> how does he do it? >> how does he navigate it and still make it stick? >> how does he just not get pi john holed as the has panic republican and become on the national lead. >> well, look.

hillary clinton is, whether she likes it or not, as well. this clinton, industrial news complex. everything she does sparks speculation, sparks, you know, all of these incredible, you know, obsessing over whether it's not -- it's a positioning for this year, positioning for another year, a positioning against somebody. so i think that's just something that's going to happen. and i think a lot of people are going to look at whether or not her preparations look like. and she can sort of inherit the obama success. >> so you guys stuck me with the four that none of you picked. go biden. i like this. cinc is a network. >> king is an independent. >> that's what i'm going to be watching. >> do you see the ce,of the servetive movement?

>> i think it's hard for jim demint -- it's like this aol time warner merger. it makes a lot of sense on paper. we'll be able to overcome some of the institutional challenges. it's something that's out in the -- the think tank worl. >> we'll have more from the gaggle coming up. plus, the six-year itch,it's a bedrock of conventional wisdom. or is it just a made-up thing? second term president, supposedly struggling in his midterm. we'll let you know whether you think it's real or simply a coincidence. but, first, our special trivia question. who was the first president and who is the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday? the answer and more is coming up on the daily rundown. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to.

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well, as we get closer to the next midterm e lexzs, you'll likely hear more about the so called sixz-year itch. it's a theory that the party controlling the white house is big. today, we're taking a dive into whether the six-year itch is real or simply a coincidence that just happened a few times. it's a look back at history, if you will. let me show you what we're looking at. truman, eisenhower, reagan, clinton and bush. we're including truman because he took over after f.d.r. died. president nixon is out because he resigned before the second midterm sha lacking. she lacking. but let's put up the numbers. truman's second midterm, in 1950, his democratic party last 28 in the house. in ike's second midterm, the gop got wiped out.

reagan, 86. republica republicans lost five seats in the house, eight in the senate. not so bad. but it did cost the republican's control in the senate. president clinton is the big out liar, here, if you'll recall, because he didn't lose anything, winning five house seats, staying even in the senate eight years later, 2006, he got hammered. republicans lost 30 seats in the house, six in the senate and control. both houses were gone from the republicans. a couple things to note. the 1988 election marked the only time a sitting, two-term president saw any kind of games. in addition, two-term presidents have one really bad midterm and not so bad. for instance, eisenhower did much better in his midterm than his second. truman's party kwuz much worse in '46 than it was in '50.

republicans lost seven senate seats in -- lost a bunch of senate seats in '86 and the control but did better in the house. let's take a look at our next one. the two most recent examples of midterm. bill clinton lost 54 house seats and 8 senate seats. both parties said that the 98 result was due in part, maybe in hole, to the republican's backlash who seemed focused on the lew irksz nsky scandal. two republican midterms there. republicans gained ground in 2002, a 9/11 halo effect, if you will, before losing big in 2006. so what's behind the truth of this theory of the six-year itch? it seems logical that the pendulum would swing to both parties. but when you look at the case,

there are extenuating circumstances. by the time his second midterm rolled around, harry truman was four months into intervention in korea, a controversial effort that republicans used against him. by the midterms in 1958, u.s. unemployment had spiked to nearly 7%, that was double what it had been when he was first elected six years earlier. during the 2006 midterms, u.s. was three years into the iraq war and facing heavy with president bush and his party. so what are the lessons for president obama and the democrats? should they worry about a six-year itch? i say maybe not so much. and here's why. in 2010, the party lost 63 seats in the house. six seats in the senate. president obama famously called it a shellacking and tfsz. he limits his losses like reagan did or even add seats in the house. it's very hard, frankly, to do

worse than what he did in his first midterm. and then democrats had this helpful anecdote. they simply hold on to the control in the senate. the president can declare partial victory for that. that was the importance of democrats adding two senate seets, sitting at 55. republicans have to win big, winning six senate seats is big and that's what they'd have to do to get control in 2014. the gaggle will be back right after the break. the good, the bad and the ugly of the 2012 campaign ad season. they made us laugh. some made us cringe. but which ones made us go out and vote? you're watching a special edition on the daily run down only on msnbc. and i honestly didn't think i would ever quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. it put me at ease that you could smoke on the first week. [ male announcer ] some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these

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our gaggle here was almost unanimous in naming that ad as one of the most memorable and effective ads of the 2012 campaign. that's saying something in a race where nearly a billion dollars was spent on television advertising alone just in a presidential race. it was tough to stand out. what was interesting here, kevin and stephanie, is both of you picked that ad as the most effective and both of you, on the democratic side, you both picked the most effective ad on the republican side. here it is. >> he tried. you tried. it's okay. it's okay to make a change. >> so i thought that was interesting. it's almost like you're respecting the other's work. so, kevin, you picked "america the beautiful"? >> i remember when that ad came out.

stephanie and i were both on "face the nation." the first time we saw it while we were on air. and i remember while it's playing, i'm thinking that is a very good ad. i mean, it's often times that we use a candidate's words against him. i never heard them using his singing words against him. and, by the way, they used it again and again and again. >> when you remember the campaign, that's -- if you say the 2012 campaign, it is very likely you will get someone singing an off-key version of "america the beautiful." >> so the big problem we had was that mitt romney is not somebody you can identify with. a lots of it was just very, it just seems, you know, something with that that they could not identify with. so they made it their point. >> you know, that is always the most effective with that little light touch. >> it was the juxtaposition. here he is singing about

"america the beautiful." and it forces you to turn and look at the tv. and then on the tv, you just see it scrolled down. it was perfect. if he believes in america, why is he investing overseas? you thought that was the most effective attack ad on the president. and you were wondering where did it go? >> if you look at democrats consolida consolida consolidated, republicans consolidated, there's a small spot in the middle. >> and who looked hiem. him. >> so it was a perfect message to them. it's okay to make a change. he tried, you tried. let's move forward. >> let's respond to that. >> i mean, to stephanie's point, it was something that buoyed the president, the personal likability factor. but the people felt that if this is something to focus on the economy, i think that was a mistake.

we didn't do it in a broad and sustained way. >> to the credit of you guys, things weren't within grounds all of the time. a little bit of sort of best of what i thought were the -- some of the most negative ads of the cycle. here it is. >> he has issues with anger, ethics and women. >> road rage, a trail of unpaid debts and tax liens. >> mitt romney made over a hundred million dollars by shutting down our plant. and devastated our lives. turns out, that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> romney spent so much american money, you borrowed more and more from us.

your economy get very weak, ours get very strong. thank you. >> the brutal, there was a hackishness to the negative ads. >> there was a hackishness on the senate level. >> they were the hardest possible. if you look at ohio, they were the useless there. >> they just buried him. this is a guy who got in a bar fight, they didn't put it in there, but bar fight with ron gant. >> he was 22. when you're an idiot college kid, you're an idiot college kid. >> i always say we focus so much on the presidential, but you can only really hate those who you know extremely well. it's like the pta board race. you know, you can only really

dislike -- the lower down you get where you actually know more of the people -- the presidential race is like barack obama know each other in the vaguest sense. >> i've seen it ten times worse. >> the hardest time this year, and you were talking about it, breaking through. you were talking about your ad that broke through virally was mayburn. >> yes. without any money behind it. >> it never aired in actual television. >> oh, it did. it was part of our rotation. but just putting it out there in earned media, 5 million people went to it on our web site to look at it! here's the most viral ad. >> together, we can do this. we can take this country back. ♪ >> here it is.

does it get any better? >> it was a great ad. >> no desire to be president. >> he had no path it was like, we well, this is totally fascinating if you're not trying to be a serious presidential candidate. >> that's really good advice for early staffers. >> all right. let's take it with us. >> when you have an open seat for the presidency, it's open season for us to talk about it. don't forget, you can talk about it on our web site, always follow us on facebook or just like us, do whatever you want to us. we'll be right back. to the best vacation spot on earth. (all) the gulf! it doesn't matter which of our great states folks visit. mississippi, alabama,

louisiana or florida, they're gonna love it. shaul, your alabama hospitality is incredible. thanks, karen. love your mississippi outdoors. i vote for your florida beaches, dawn. bill, this louisiana seafood is delicious. we're having such a great year on the gulf, we've decided to put aside our rivalry. now is the perfect time to visit anyone of our states. the beaches and waters couldn't be more beautiful. take a boat ride, go fishing or just lay in the sun. we've got coastline to explore and wildlife to photograph. and there's world class dining with our world famous seafood. so for a great vacation this year, come to the gulf. its all fabulous but i give florida the edge. right after mississippi. you mean alabama. say louisiana or there's no dessert. this invitation is brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. but with advair, i'm breathing better. so now i can be in the scene.

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any time anyone makes a trip to iowa, people start speculating. let me just be blunt. i am not now nor will i ever be a candidate for offensive coordinator of iowa. >> i think i mention ds that i have a warm regard for people of iowa and new hampshire. >> party favorites already flirting with the 2016 run. but there's one dynasty duo. i look at this and say it's bush, it's clinton, it's for all the marbles. if we don't get jeb and hillary, what are we going to do with ourself? >> i mean, i love the primaries. i love great generals, more. come on. >> i mean, this would be -- this would be like that time when you were like what if hillary clinton ran for the senate and what if rudy jewelonulionny ran?

>> well, the thing i would say is it is not too farfetched to think that could happen. i think if hillary clinton does run, i find it hard to believe that the andrew qumo's of the world stay less cleared out. he's the kind of ideal logical, the guy that can match and the conservatives establishment. he's the best out there. >> it's the purists verse the prag pragmatists. >> it's not clear to me that clinton is the natural heir to the obama coalition or is she? >> i think that there is no natural heir. people want you to earn it. i think that there's no argument out there that she hasn't earned it. she has. and, you know, i think that she has done remarkably well as the secretary of state. and who was talking about it

earlier? kevin was. that when she speaks, everybody in this country listens. she is a voice and authority on so many issues. but this is the year of the woman. >> it is. it's going to happen. and here's the two most popular figures we tested in our last nbc wall street journal poll. both were named clinton. number three is obama. bill and hillary, their ratings are higher than the presidents. >> people don't like hillary clinton if she runs for president again. the heir that i think, another interesting thing that stephanie said is i don't think joe bidden is the heir. she wanted to run in 2016, i think she'd have a great chance to maybe even defeat someone if it was not hillary clinton. >> the whole joe biden thing, i think we underestimate him in our own pe roll. he's vice president of the united states. it's a weird thing. >> and he is very good -- people -- he gets charactered and says oh, he makes a lot of

mistakes. if you watch him on the stump, he's very good at connecting. he is. i mean, he does make his mistakes. >> i disagree. >> you think it's a joke? >> no, i mean, i think he has been built into the obama organization and that is how he has flourished. i think he has a lot of people within the media that really like him. i think if this were, and i hate to play my media bias card, but if he was a republican, he was be caricatured much worse than he is. i just don't see him having -- to stephanie's point, you can't be an heir off of somebody else's organization. >> bush did it with reagan in '88. >> nowadays, you would have to build and manage and own your own organization. i don't see any of these heirs. >> i agree. there is no heir. but i do think joe biden is formidable. but he was our secret weapon out

there. iowa, wisconsin, he lived in those states. >> if she doesn't run, i'm not betting on andy quomo over joe biden. >> see, i would. i would definitely. >> it's the same argument that we made for hillary clinton. she's going to have the money, she's got the establishmented and she's got all good people around her. andrew quomo dunt come into that race as formidable as hillary clinton looked. >> how do you prevent, kevin, a republican primary picture that you guys had. i think a lot of you folks in romney will believe that the republicans hurt romney. >> i think that the debates became a bit of a side show there. if you looked at the volatility of the electorate at the time and how the numbers went up and down based on the big performances and the side show that they became, i think that was something that had a very big effect. >> you could have a large -- >> i think the rnc can step in and take a bit more of a management role in the process

and have an impact on the nominee and have that nominee much more viably positioned for a general election. >> a fairly large field, jeb would shrink it a little bit. but, without jeb, i think seven eight of serious people. >> i was going to say, unlike the 12 field, where you're like rick santorum is the last guy standing? i should have went to vegas and been a millionaire. you have real people, paul ryan, you know, the v.p. nominee, bobby gindle, a governor of a state, marko rubio, a senator. you know, you've got real people. >> and let me throw in another name. of the four imbattled republican governors, whoever survives would run for president. >> i think scott walker would love to run. >> hard to see a 2016 republican

ticket that doesn't have a woman or minority in some capacity. >> i thought for sure there would be a woman on the ticket in the democratic party and there hasn't been yet. anyway, we asked who was the first president and who was the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday which sort of messes up inauguration plans. the answer is james monroe and ronald reagan. the first time on inauguration date was in 1891 and the most recent was president obama's second inaugural will fall on a sunday. if you've got a political trivia question for us, e-mail us and we'll be right back with predictions and plugs from our gaggle. apologies to mr. mcglockin, we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to.

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let's bring back the gaggle. if i pose this question to you, kevin, a year from now in 2013, we will say 2013 was about what in washington? >> i think a lot of it has to do with the republican party trying to modernize their message chlts

but i think the two parties are now in an effort to sort of energize their base and get things done in washington, going to be looking at two big issues. i think the tax reform, there's general disagreement here. but where they agree on things like corporate rate and immigration reform. >> let me put it a slightly different way. how long does president obama's second term last? >> well, they last four years. but there is a shelf life to what you can get done. people are going to start looking at the midterms pretty quickly. 2013 is a very important year. tax reform, immigration reform, we have to finish implementing the heltcare law. people are going to be signing up for exchanges all over the country. >> we don't know if barack obama is a liberal and limited to a four-year or a six year. he's now freel to do it.

we don't really know by next year. >> i'm going to put you on the spot. so 2013, really the big rates. >> that's what i'm talking about. dominating the washington markets. >> it's such a fascinating race because it's kind of -- cuccinelli is kind of the national tea party hero in wading in some ways. it could be michelle bachman. cuccinelli, if he wins, it could be 2016. >> it could be known as the year america got comfortable with gay marriage. that's it for this special year on "the daily rundown." you can watch us every weekday at 9:00 a.m. here on msnbc. happy holidays, happy new year. be safe from all of us here at "the daily rundown."